Enter Donald Trump. The new US president could call on Opec. He can pledge to ratchet up oil sanctions on Russia to the point where their impact becomes more acute: these would target not only producers, but refiners, ports, insurers and the shadow fleet. He can also apply more political pressure on China, India and Turkey to support compliance.

Trump is pressuring Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to expand oil production in order to lower prices. TD Securities' Bart Melek discusses why prices are likely to climb despite this.